Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model

The Decarbonization Scenario Analysis Model (Decarbonization Model) quantifies the effect of mitigation measures on the energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of the U.S. economy by sector. The model’s results inform stakeholders about the implications of technology choices and help identify potential synergies or discordance across GHG mitigation measures within a decarbonization scenario. The model begins with a reference case based on energy use from the Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2021 by type, sector, and end use; greenhouse gas emissions factors from Argonne’s R&D GREET model; and non-combustion emissions from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. It then uses outputs from sector-specific models developed across DOE National Laboratories and other analysis and assumptions to evaluate mitigation measures in the context of a decarbonization scenario to 2050. Direct and supply chain emissions for the mitigation measures are evaluated using the R&D GREET model for consistency. The model is open source and made available on GitHub.